Harnessing Swarm Satellite Magnetic Data to Revolutionize Earthquake Prediction

Predicting earthquakes remains one of the most profound challenges in seismology and a long-standing aspiration for humanity. Among the array of potential precursors, changes in the Earth’s magnetic field have emerged as a promising yet contentious avenue of research (e.g., De Santis et al., 2015). With advancements in satellite technology, especially with the advent of the European Space Agency’s Swarm mission, we now have the unprecedented ability to measure the magnetic field with extraordinary precision, unlocking exciting opportunities for earthquake forecasting.

In this study, we leverage data from Swarm satellites to investigate whether magnetic anomalies can serve as reliable precursors to earthquakes. Our approach integrates two complementary methodologies: a) global statistical analysis: We applied superposed epoch and spatial techniques to several years of global earthquake data, correlating it with Swarm's magnetic field measurements (De Santis et al., 2019; Marchetti et al., 2022); b) tectonic case study: We focused on major earthquakes occurring from 2014 to 2023 within the tectonically active Alpine-Himalayan belt (Alimoradi et al., 2024).

To analyze these events, we employed an advanced automated algorithm (De Santis et al., 2017) to detect magnetic anomalies in satellite data recorded up to 90 days prior to global earthquakes and up to 10 days before events in the Alpine-Himalayan region. The findings revealed compelling evidence of clear magnetic anomalies preceding earthquakes. Notably, in the Alpine-Himalayan case study, we observed a striking correlation between earthquake magnitude and the duration and intensity of these anomalies: larger earthquakes were associated with stronger and more prolonged signals.

Our predictive framework demonstrated remarkable performance, achieving an accuracy of 79%, a precision of 88%, and a hit rate of 84%. These results underscore the transformative potential of satellite-based magnetic field analysis, paving the way for an operational earthquake prediction system. Such a system could serve as a powerful tool for mitigating the devastating impacts of earthquakes and safeguarding communities worldwide.

The work has been developed in the framework of the following projects: UNITARY- Pianeta Dinamico (funds from MUR), SPACE IT UP (PNRR), Limadou Scienza + (ASI) and FURTHER (INGV).

 

References

Alimoradi, H., Rahimi, H., De Santis, A. Successful Tests on Detecting Pre-Earthquake Magnetic Field Signals from Space, Remote Sensing, 16(16), 2985, 2024.

De Santis et al., Geospace perturbations induced by the Earth: the state of the art and future trends, Phys. & Chem. Earth, 85-86, 17-33, 2015.

De Santis A. et al., Potential earthquake precursory pattern from space: the 2015 Nepal event as seen by magnetic Swarm satellites, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 461, 119-126, 2017.

De Santis A. et al. Precursory worldwide signatures of earthquake occurrences on Swarm satellite data, Scientific Reports, 9:20287, 2019.

Marchetti D., De Santis A., Campuzano S.A., et al. Worldwide Statistical Correlation of eight years of Swarm satellite data with M5.5+ earthquakes, Remote Sensing, 14 (11), 2649, 2022.