- 1University of Pannonia, Faculty of Engineering, Air Chemisry Research Group, Hungary (rostasi.agnes@gmail.com)
- 2HUN-REN Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
- 3ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Department of Meteorology, Budapest, Hungary
- 4MTA-PE Air Chemistry Research Group, Research Institute of Biomolecular and Chemical Engineering, University of Pannonia, Veszprém, Hungary
Accurate forecasting of weather-dependent renewable energy production is vital for energy security and economic stability, especially in regions undergoing rapid photovoltaic (PV) energy expansion. This study investigates the impact of Saharan dust events (SDEs) on PV power generation forecasts in Hungary, a leading European country in terms of PV penetration. Utilising a comprehensive dataset comprising 46 identified SDEs from 2020 to 2023, the research quantifies forecast errors and production deviations under dusty and non-dusty conditions. The analysis reveals that current forecasting models fail to account for dust-related impacts, resulting in significant errors in day-ahead scheduling. During SDEs, PV generation deficits and surpluses were found to be 30.9% and 17.6% higher than during non-dusty periods, respectively. On deficit days, the primary factor reducing irradiance was found to be unforeseen cloud cover, particularly extensive cirrus clouds. Conversely, on days with surplus PV generation, reduced radiative forcing from cirrus clouds, along with the replacement of anticipated stratus and scattered radiation from dusty atmospheres, contributed to prolonged irradiance. These findings underscore the dual impact of atmospheric dust, directly decreasing irradiance and indirectly altering cloud formation mechanisms, which are not adequately captured in current PV production models.
The study emphasises the necessity to incorporate dust-specific atmospheric models and refine dust-cloud interaction parameterisations in energy forecasts. This is of particular relevance as Hungary and other regions increase their reliance on PV energy within their renewable energy portfolios. The research also has broader implications for grid stability, energy policy, and climate change mitigation, highlighting the necessity for accurate and adaptable forecasting systems to address the growing challenges posed by atmospheric variability.
The research was supported by the FFT NP FTA and NRDI projects FK138692, TKP2021-NKTA-21 and RRF-2.3.1-21-2021.
How to cite: Rostási, Á., Gresina, F., Gelencsér, A., Csávics, A., and Varga, G.: Saharan Dust and Solar Energy: Quantifying Forecasting Challenges in Hungary’s Rapidly Growing PV Sector, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12210, 2025.
