Post-fire recovery and the role of armed conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean - A case study in Lebanon

Wildfires are a natural feature of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, research efforts are unevenly distributed, with fire ecology of the Eastern Mediterranean remaining understudied compared to other parts of the biome. Furthermore, direct and indirect links between armed conflict and wildfires have been suggested for this region, interacting with climatological and ecological factors to create complex fire dynamics that are not yet well understood. 

Mediterranean ecosystems are adapted to fire and in general exhibit strong regeneration capabilities. Nevertheless, with a drier and hotter climate anticipated in the future due to climate change, there is concern of overstretching the ecosystem’s regenerative ability. In the Eastern Mediterranean, while more research regarding fire regimes and fire risk has emerged in recent years, vegetation recovery after fire has rarely been investigated.

Using Lebanon as a case study, we aim to disentangle the roles of climate, armed conflict, and other human impacts in post-fire recovery patterns in Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems. Using a recently compiled, national fire occurrence dataset and publicly available vegetation indices data, we will first create a statistical model to identify areas where fire activity is primarily driven by climate vs. conflict. We will then study recovery trajectories of vegetation after wildfire to address the following questions:  (1) Does vegetation recover after wildfire, and if so, on what timescales? (2) Which environmental factors control recovery dynamics? (3) Do climate- vs. conflict driven fires differ in their properties, e.g. size? and (4) Are there differences in recovery patterns between climate- and conflict-associated fires?