Ground Motion Prediction Analysis of Myanmar

Strong ground motion during large earthquakes can cause significant damage to the buildings and infrastructure, as well as disrupt society. Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) play a crucial role in seismic hazard analysis for tectonically active regions where the strong ground motion data is available. Over the years, numerous GMPEs have been developed for various parts of the world, and the region-specific GMPEs are particularly important for the accurate seismic hazard analysis. Myanmar, located at the eastern margin of the Indian-Eurasian plate subduction zone, is one of the most tectonically active regions in Southeast Asia. It hosts a complex network of faults, including the Sagaing fault – a 1400 km long dextral fault with an estimated slip rate of 20 mm/year. Historically, there are many large earthquakes in Myanmar that have caused major damage. Despite the long history of earthquakes and the region’s vulnerability to seismic hazards, no GMPE has been developed for Myanmar due to the lack of seismic stations in the past. Leveraging the local seismic network installed in the late 2017, we now have the opportunity to look into the recorded waveforms and address the ground motion analysis for Myanmar. We aim to develop a GMPE for Myanmar region as this would greatly benefit the local communities by providing more accurate seismic hazard assessments, improving the infrastructural design to be earthquake resistant, and enhancing the seismic risk mitigation efforts. Despite the limited dataset of 5 years (2016-2021) and lack of records from large earthquakes such as Mw > 7, we strive to derive a GMPE that effectively represents regional seismic characteristics and fits the recorded data. This initiative marks a critical step toward enhancing seismic safety and resilience in Myanmar.