Assessment of the impact of future climate trend and fluctuation on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain and exploration of adaptation strategies

Research on the impacts of climate change on crop yield is necessary for improving agricultural management practices and increasing crop adaptability to climate change. Future climate change not only alters long-term climate trends but also changes the amplitude of their fluctuations. Currently, there is a lack of studies that comprehensively consider the effects of climate trend and fluctuation on crop yield. The North China Plain is the largest wheat producing area in China, this study utilizes the DSSAT crop model to analyzes the impacts of future climate trends and climate fluctuations on winter wheat yields in the North China Plain, explores the dominant climatic factors affecting irrigated and rainfed winter wheat in the North China Plain under different climate scenarios in the future and proposes feasible recommendations for management options to cope with climate change with a view to guaranteeing food security. It was found that winter wheat yield in the North China Plain increased by 1.5% in the 2030s and decreased by 13.4% in the 2080s. The main reason for the decrease was the increase in the future temperature trend, which could lead to an average potential decrease of 8.4 %, and the increase in precipitation in the future could play an alleviating role. Irrigated and rainfed agriculture respond differently to climate change, with future temperatures dominating yield reduction changes in irrigated winter wheat and precipitation dominating yield increase changes in rainfed winter wheat. Delaying the sowing date of winter wheat and increasing field fertility can effectively mitigate the negative effects of temperature increases, whereas the mitigation effect of increasing irrigation is limited. In the future, we should pay attention to the potential threat of high temperatures and heat damage to winter wheat planting, and rationally use regional climate resources to guide agricultural production.