Projected Changes in Severe Storm Environments in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Convective Permitting Simulation Approach

Due to the ongoing climate change, there has been an observed increase in atmospheric and sea surface temperatures. This has led to a rise in the frequency of extreme weather events, including excessive precipitation and tornadoes. This study aims to examine the potential changes in extreme weather cases that will amplify their effects, specifically during November, in the Eastern Mediterranean, one of the two regions in Europe most affected by climate change. The analysis is planned to be carried out with the help of high-resolution simulations produced by the numerical weather model WRF-ARW using CMIP6 MPI-ESM1.2 projections. Initially, the months of November with a significant potential for extreme weather events were identified within the MPIESM1.2 global model projection using the SeveR index, a metric designed to estimate the likelihood of severe storm environments characterized by convective rainfall. A series of high-resolution simulations were produced for November in the years 2039, 2057, 2069, 2077, 2079, 2082, and 2097 identified as having high extreme weather potential based on SeveR index. To compare these simulations with the climatic conditions of the November months from 2004 to 2014, additional simulations were produced. A detailed analysis of the monthly total precipitation for November revealed that the highest estimated total precipitation amounts were 683.5 mm and 680.2 mm in Rize Çayeli in 2039 and 2097, respectively, and 959.1 mm and 614.6 mm in Muğla Köyceğiz in 2057 and 2079, respectively. Notably, the mountainous region west of Crete was predicted to accumulate 1,397.7 mm and 598.3 mm in 2077 and 2082, respectively. Additionally, 555.1 mm was predicted to accumulate over the sea off the coast of Antalya Kumluca in 2069. Conversely, an analysis of the reference years demonstrated that 2008 and 2014 were the wettest years. In 2008, the maximum monthly total precipitation was predicted to be 933.4 millimeters in Gazipaşa, Antalya. In 2014, 1224.8 millimeters of rainfall were forecasted in Arta, Greece. A detailed analysis of future daily maximum rainfall amounts reveals a prediction of 184.2 millimeters of rainfall over the sea south of Rhodes Island on November 19, 2097, and 237.3 millimeters over the sea in the northeast of Crete on November 24, 2077. Finally, on November 25, 2069, 144.4 millimeters of daily precipitation was predicted in the mountainous region in the western part of Crete. In addition to precipitation patterns, a comprehensive examination of wind speeds reveals that, according to the simulation for November 2077, a maximum wind speed of 59.3 m/s is predicted in the southwest of Crete.