Physical modelling of the retreat of Belvedere Glacier through the 21st century

Belvedere Glacier, in Italy, is the Alpine glacier with the highest elevation jump, starting from the East Massif of Monte Rosa over 4,000 m a.s.l., and with an ablation area ending at ca. 1,900 m a.s.l. . The deep debris layer, which covers and insulates the tongue of the glacier is indeed the reason why it still persists at such low altitudes. The modelling of dark glaciers melt and dynamics is made difficult by the changing debris cover layer. Here, thanks to the measurements campaign on Belvedere Glacier of 2024, where we installed a climate station, several thermistors, and ablation stakes, we calibrated an energy balance model to mimic ice melt. We also assessed debris layer thickness by reversing energy balance model using infrared satellite images. Dynamics of the glacier was modelled using Glen flow law and GPR measurements of ice thickness. 
By coupling the energy balance model to Poli-Hydro hydrological model we were able to mimic the evolution of the glacier and the water resources of the area up to 2100 using 6 GCM from AR6.