After the Peace Agreement: a review of the interplay of conflict, socio-economic factors and deforestation in Colombia

Colombia's forests, covering over half the country's land, are crucial ecosystems facing significant threats from multiple drivers, including infrastructure expansion, agricultural development, and illegal activities. This complex deforestation issue is deeply intertwined with Colombia's socio-political landscape, particularly influenced by its history of armed conflict and the recent peace agreement with FARC guerrillas in 2016. The complexity of the interconnected drivers makes developing effective forest protection strategies challenging, highlighting the intricate relationship between Colombia's political history, economic development, and environmental conservation. In this study, we conducted a systematic literature review examining the complex interplay between forest degradation, socio-political dynamics, and economic development in Colombia before and after the peace agreement. The review incorporated perspectives from environmental and social study disciplines, inspecting top-down and bottom-up scaling approaches to analyze the multifaceted scenarios that emerged during this period.

Our literature review on armed conflict and deforestation in Colombia reveals a growing interest from environmental and social sciences in understanding the impacts that the Colombian civil conflict and the 2016 peace agreement have had on the environment. Since the peace agreement, there has been a notable rise in research on this topic. We found that in environmental sciences, top-down analyses are more frequently employed, while in social sciences bottom-up methods are preferred. Interestingly, the number of interdisciplinary studies combining both methods is increasing. Multiple methodologies confirm that deforestation increased after the peace agreement, especially in the Andes and Amazon regions, but also in the Chocó and Llanos biogeographical regions. The power vacuum left by the guerrilla, not filled by governmental institutions, is widely acknowledged as a key source of important drivers of uncontrolled forest loss, such as land grabbing and illegal cattle ranching. External factors such as international demand for gold and illegal drugs continue to fuel deforestation and social conflict, with international aid programs to local farmers often proving ineffective. Although Colombia's situation may appear unique, the complex interplay of social, economic, political, and environmental factors offers valuable insights for understanding similar global dynamics in other conflict-prone regions.