Non-expert understanding of hazard maps: Insights from an online survey

Uncertainties are an unavoidable part of scientific research. Practical limits with regard to the number, accuracy and precision of available observations as well as limitations in terms of methodological accuracy and modelling contribute to the fact that even the most elaborate and meticulous forecasts can never be deterministic and no completely reliable and accurate predictions for decision-making can be achieved. In concrete applications, a sufficient understanding of the accuracy and reliability of scientifically based predictions is important, for example in disaster prevention or resource planning. For example, natural hazard maps are primarily intended for those who have the necessary expertise to understand them. However, they are also used in their unaltered form by non-experts for decision-making, many of whom are unfamiliar with the scientific background and implications of the map.

We address this problem using an earthquake hazard map which can be relevant to non-expert audiences when seeking advice on purchasing a house or obtaining insurance. In order to understand how non-experts perceive a scientifically compiled earthquake hazard map, we conducted an online survey with 229 participants. This was done as part of the 2024 Science & Innovation Days (a public engagement event) in Tübingen, Germany. Participants were asked about their first impression of the map in terms of information content, any need for further explanation and possible actions to take. Other questions assessed participants’ previous experiences and self-assessment of hazard perceptions.

In this presentation, we will discuss the survey results and share lessons learned when communicating information that contains uncertainty with non-expert audiences.