Accelerating transitions between dry and wet periods in Pakistan: interconnected impacts and exacerbated vulnerabilities

The transition from droughts to floods poses significant challenges to socio-environmental systems, as these extremes often occur in rapid succession, leaving little time for recovery. These abrupt transitions exacerbate disaster risk, also resulting in complex interaction between drivers and impacts. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1901 to 2023 at multiple timescales is used to better understand these dynamics in Pakistan, a highly vulnerable country. Southern Pakistan, especially Sindh and Baluchistan, is the most affected area as the analysis reveals more frequent dry events with shorter interarrival times and high drought intensity. The decreasing interval between dry and wet periods highlights increasingly rapid transitions from dry to wet conditions over time. These results underscore the limited potential for sustained recovery after drought events, which not only poses significant challenges for water resource management and agriculture but also amplifies the severity of subsequent flood impacts. To better understand these dynamics, we analysed the drought-to-flood transition that occurred between 2020 and 2022. Results highlight spatiotemporal interaction between risk components, impacts and management of cascading extremes exacerbating vulnerabilities. This underscores the pressing need for comprehensive and adaptive mitigation strategies that address the interconnected nature of these events.