Multi-hazard vulnerability and risk assessment in the Nepalese Himalayan region using IPCC AR4 and AR5 frameworks

Shifts in changing climatic pattern trigger modification in landscape, consequently intensifying the susceptibility to a range of hazards, creating a complex trajectory of environmental challenges. This research project has explored climate-induced vulnerability and risk assessment in the rapidly changing landscape of Seti River Sub-Basin within Nepalese Himalayas. Vulnerability in the region has been analysed based on exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and associated indicators. The study leveraged satellite imageries, historical climate data and geospatial tools along with socioeconomic, topographic, and climatic indicators, IPCC frameworks (AR4 and AR5) and index based modeling. The research results show that the region is highly susceptible to landslide and flood hazards driven by geological setting, elevation factors and socioeconomic factors in addition to low adaptive capacity accompanied by extreme climatic events. The settlements and cultivated lands  of the local Madi, Seti, Bhunge and Phusre rivers are at the risk of flood hazards while the upper slopes in Machhapuchhre and Pokhara are highly exposed to landslide hazards. Administratively, Pokhara Metropolitan city, Machhapuchhre and Rupa Rural municipalities are positioned as highly, moderate and low rank in terms of vulnerability ranking, respectively. The research underscores the need of localized risk management strategies and resilience planning. The vulnerability and risk frameworks applied in this study will be imperative and applicable in the mountainous region of Nepal and elsewhere.