Modeling Modern and Future Avalanches in Southeastern Alaska

Snow avalanches are a significant concern across much of Alaska, posing risks to public safety, transportation, and accessibility. Despite their profound effect on society and the natural environment, avalanches remain poorly understood in many parts of Alaska. Public awareness and availability of information to support hazard adaptation, mitigation, and preparedness efforts are limited, even in the state’s most densely populated areas. The development of comprehensive avalanche hazard information is constrained by sparse observations of weather and snowpack conditions, and limited data on avalanche frequency. As climate warming progresses, shifts in temperature and precipitation are expected to modify snowpack conditions and influence the frequency and magnitude of avalanches, potentially changing Alaska’s vulnerability to these hazards. Understanding current avalanche hazards is critical for anticipating future climate-driven avalanche activity and assessing its potential effects on society and landscape dynamics. This project uses advanced avalanche models, originally developed and calibrated in Switzerland, to identify potential release areas and simulate millions of avalanche scenarios using downscaled climate reanalysis data and projections. The result is large-scale avalanche hazard indication maps for southeastern Alaska, both for present and future climate.