Validation of the AWSoM Solar Wind Magnetic Field Model with Upstream Mars Solar Wind Conditions from MAVEN Observations

Previous studies on the interaction of Mars’ un-magnetized space environment with the solar wind have shown that the structural morphology of Mars’ hybrid magnetosphere and the plasma dynamical processes occurring within are strongly driven by its solar wind conditions. This unique interaction is highly complex during quiet solar wind periods, let alone extreme solar wind conditions such as the encounter of CMEs or other transient solar wind structures. This emphasizes the importance of accurate knowledge of the upstream solar wind conditions when any spacecraft is inside the hybrid magnetosphere. However, all planetary missions to Mars consist of only one spacecraft, which further highlights the need for a solar wind model to accurately predict the upstream solar wind conditions. Here, we aim to validate and assess the capability of the physics-based Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan in predicting the solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (i.e. B) and plasma conditions (i.e. velocity, temperature and density) by comparing its simulated outputs with the solar wind data from the MAVEN spacecraft; MAVEN has been in orbit around Mars since 2014. We surveyed and identified multiple Carrington rotations across 10 years of MAVEN solar wind observations whenever MAVEN is upstream of the martian bow shock, and compared them with the simulated outputs from AWSoM using the dynamic time warping technique as a metric tool. Preliminary results indicate that AWSoM was able to accurately predict the magnitude of each solar wind parameter but did not perform as well when predicting the time of occurrence for observed solar wind structures (i.e. time-shift between observed and simulated). We further investigated the quality of our data-model comparison between consecutive solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 and current Solar Cycle 25, and the solar minimum in-between.  The data-model comparison methods and results presented in this study contribute to the overall space weather efforts to improve the accuracy and precision of the physics-based AWSoM solar wind predictions over large heliocentric distances, including Mercury and Earth.