Using the CAMS solar radiation time-series product to model solar PV power potential. Uncertainty evaluation under diverse atmospheric conditions using ground-based measurements.

The decarbonization of the power sector is among the most challenging tasks in the effort to mitigate climate change and achieve the 7^th United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-7) for Affordable and Clean Energy by 2030. The rapid growth in the installed capacity of solar photovoltaics (PV) in recent years, driven by their cost-effectiveness, highlights their potential as a promising technology for large-scale transitions. However, solar energy is a variable source, the availability of which depends strongly on atmospheric conditions, particularly clouds and aerosols. Therefore, assessing the expected power output is essential for planning sustainable investments, such as the installation and maintenance of solar farms, while reliable solar power forecasting is crucial for their integration into energy supply grids. The Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) solar radiation time-series product provides historical data for the global horizontal irradiance, along with its components, including direct and diffuse, which renders it suitable for performing estimations of the produced energy from photovoltaics. We use the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE), a widely used open-access model for simulating solar plants, aiming to evaluate the use of CAMS solar radiation time-series product for estimating the solar PV power potential. More precisely, we compare the CAMS-based solar power generation with the output from simulations derived using ground-based actinometric measurements of the direct and diffuse surface solar radiation components that were available at five BSRN sites in Europe and North Africa, obtained from stations with quite different prevailing aerosol and cloudiness conditions. The analysis has been performed for photovoltaics that are positioned at fixed tilt angles and on solar tracking systems. CAMS solar radiation product is widely used to simulate the PV power potential and thus the findings of this study provide valuable insights from the reliability of using it for such assessments.