EGU25-13886, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13886
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Poster | Friday, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), Display time Friday, 02 May, 08:30–18:00
 
vPoster spot 2, vP2.16
Comprehensive Risk Assessment at the Port of Manzanillo: A Model Based on PMBOK and Fuzzy Logic.
Enrique Cardenas1, Jorge Delgadillo-Partida1, Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas2, and Francisco Zarate-Ramirez1
Enrique Cardenas et al.
  • 1Universidad Tecnológica de Manzanillo, Manzanillo, México (enrique-cardenas@utem.edu.mx)
  • 2Instituto de Investigaciones de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Morelia, México (ana.mendoza@umich.mx)

The Port of Manzanillo, Colima, serves as a pivotal infrastructure for Mexico’s international trade network. In response to increasing operational demands and advance modernisation efforts, an ambitious expansion into the Laguna de Cuyutlán has been proposed. This initiative includes the construction of specialised container terminals and supporting infrastructures. However, the area’s vulnerability to geological and hydrometeorological hazards—such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, tsunamis, landslides, and tropical storms—raises critical concerns regarding the durability and sustainability of these developments.

This study introduces a hybrid risk management approach that combines the principles of the PMBOK’s plan risk management methodology with the analytical precision of fuzzy set theory. Comprehensive historical data on natural hazards were systematically gathered from risk atlases, scientific research, and official reports. The model applies fuzzy membership functions to evaluate the likelihood and impact of risks. Additionally, tools like fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy DEMATEL, and fuzzy ANP facilitate the structured analysis and prioritisation of potential threats.

The primary aim is to create a robust system for addressing the uncertainties associated with complex risk environments. By integrating advanced analytical methods with established risk management practices, the model provides a foundation for designing effective mitigation strategies. These measures are essential for maintaining operational reliability, enhancing infrastructure resilience, and minimising socio-economic impacts. This research highlights the value of interdisciplinary methodologies that link scientific advancements with practical solutions, tackling the intricate challenges posed by climatic and geological extremes in dynamic contexts.

How to cite: Cardenas, E., Delgadillo-Partida, J., Mendoza-Rosas, A. T., and Zarate-Ramirez, F.: Comprehensive Risk Assessment at the Port of Manzanillo: A Model Based on PMBOK and Fuzzy Logic., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13886, 2025.