Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance

Global warming may trigger more frequent snow droughts (SD). SD can result from low total precipitation (dry-SD), from high temperature leading to less solid precipitation (warm-SD) or from the combination of both (dry-warm compound SD). Each of those SD type pose different ecological threats. Nevertheless, the regions dominated by SD types, transition patterns, and the future risks under climate change remain unclear. Here, we investigated the dominant SD types and clarify the transition patterns among the three SD types during the historical and the future period. The results suggest a global increase in SD frequency by about 1.5-fold and 2-fold under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Moreover, the shares of warm SD is increasing and may become dominant by 2050 and probability of dry-warm compound SD may reach 4–10 times that of the historical period. The global transition from dry to warm dominated SD is attributed to greenhouse gases. Those findings provide a scientific reference for addressing climate change risks on SD.