Global Hotspots for Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change

Climate change has significantly affected terrestrial water cycle, but future runoff change response to global warming remains uncertain among CMIPs. Here, we estimate the runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature (GMT) change and recognize global runoff response hotpots from existing CMIPs. Results show that global mean runoff increases linearly with GMT rise (3.3%/℃) in CMIP6, which is more sensitive than CMIP3 (1.9%/℃) and CMIP5 (2.9%/℃). Albeit with difference in the magnitude of regional runoff sensitivity, CMIPs exhibit consistent spatial pattern in terms of the direction of runoff response. Furthermore, exiting CMIPs projected that the significant negative runoff response hotspots mostly occur in the extended subtropics, while hotspots to experience significant wetting are mainly found in the northern high-latitude and some water-scare areas. Our results highlight global hotpots of runoff response to climate change from CMIP3 to CMIP6, which may benefit to develop associated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.