A Conceptual Agent-Based Model for Analyzing the Levee Effect in Indian Floodplains

The paradoxical increase in flood-related damages, despite rising investments in flood protection measures, underscores the need to understand the two-way feedback between floodplain communities and floods. The phenomenon of increased exposure in the regions protected by levees, known as the "levee effect," has been examined by previous researchers through monitoring the change in flood hazard, exposure to flood risk, and flood vulnerability.

As flood risk perception, vulnerabilities, and coping mechanisms differ among individuals, it is evident that not everyone is inclined to settle near embankments. Moreover, this study posits that flood damages do not inherently compel entire communities to relocate from floodplains, especially when their livelihoods are intertwined with the resources provided by the floodplains. Further, specific households may manage to enhance their resilience while choosing to stay within the floodplains. In this study, we explore whether these interactions increase or decrease the aggregated vulnerability of the floodplain community.

Using an agent-based modeling approach, we prescribe rules for household agents’ interactions with their environment, incorporating heterogeneity of human behavior. The ABM conceptualized in this study aims to simulate the levee effect in Indian floodplains and evaluate the long-term efficiency of structural flood protection measures in the Indian floodplains. Moreover, this study seeks to contribute insights into community-based flood management practices and inform policies aimed at disaster resilience.