Prolonged wind droughts in a warming climate

Wind droughts, characterized by prolonged periods of low wind speeds, pose significant environmental and economic risks in many regions worldwide. These extreme events can severely disrupt electricity generation from wind farms, yet their drivers and potential impacts remain poorly understood. Here, using CMIP6 data under three future emissions scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), we identify robust increasing trends in the frequency and duration of wind droughts on both global and regional scales from 2015 to 2100. Notably, the duration of 25-year return events is projected to increase in northern mid-latitude regions, where declining cyclone frequency and weakening meridional thermal gradients are two key meteorological drivers for these trends. Furthermore, we highlight regions where record-breaking wind droughts (RWDs)—events deemed statistically impossible based on historical records—are more likely to occur in a warming climate. Regions such as eastern North America, western Russia, northeastern China, and north-central Africa have a higher probability for RWDs under future scenarios. This enhanced probability of wind droughts has important implications for wind farm site selection, a factor that has received limited attention in current assessments.