Compound climate risk analysis of European ports

Ports are highly susceptible to compound climate events due to their coastal locations, which subject them to various interacting climate hazards. This study develops a novel multi-impact risk assessment framework that accounts for both the likelihood of simultaneous climate hazards (accounting for temperature, sea level, wind, precipitation and wave extremes) and their compounded effects on complex port infrastructure systems. Beyond evaluating potential physical damages to infrastructure and assets, the methodology also examines operational downtimes and yield losses triggered by these events, providing a comprehensive view of their cascading impacts.

Applied to the European port system, the framework underscores the critical role of compound effects in climate risk assessment. The findings reveal that these compound impacts can constitute up to 50% of annual repair costs and 20% of profit losses from downtime. Additionally, the synergistic interactions between hazards increase compound risks by 10%, emphasizing the non-linear nature of these threats. Spatial variability is also significant, with certain regions exhibiting clustered hazards and risks. Such insights are pivotal for guiding targeted and coherent strategies to reduce climate impacts at regional and supra-national levels.

By incorporating probabilities of joint hazards and their interactions, this approach pushes the boundaries of traditional coastal infrastructures’ risk assessment, offering more actionable insights for adaptation in coastal and port systems. Its application at the European scale demonstrates the importance of considering compound climate events in decision-making processes to improve resilience in critical infrastructure sectors.