Evaluating Air Pollution Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in China: Insights from Remote Sensing Data and Geospatial Modeling

Air pollution, particularly surface ozone, has become a significant threat to agriculture in China, severely impacting the productivity of essential staple crops like winter wheat. However, the spatiotemporal variability of ozone concentrations and its interactions with other environmental factors—such as temperature and droughts—remain inadequately understood regarding their impact on agricultural productivity. To address this gap in knowledge, this study integrates multi-source remote sensing data with advanced statistical analysis and machine learning techniques to quantitatively examine the spatiotemporal variation of ozone pollution and its interactions with climate change and other environmental factors on winter wheat productivity.

The study first employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, utilizing high-resolution remote sensing data from 2013 to 2019, to assess the spatiotemporal response of winter wheat productivity to ozone pollution. To further investigate the interactions between ozone and other environmental factors, an interpretable machine learning framework is applied, specifically using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm augmented by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Additionally, a structural equation model is developed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of these interactions. The results indicate that the negative impact of surface ozone on winter wheat has intensified annually, with significant spatial variation. Particularly in high-pollution areas, such as eastern Henan and northern Anhui provinces, the effects of ozone on winter wheat are most pronounced. Furthermore, the study reveals that the impact of ozone on winter wheat productivity varies across different growth stages, with the most severe effects observed during the later stages in May. Additionally, the research reveals the complex interactions between ozone and other environmental factors, such as temperature and aerosol concentration. Notably, the harmful effects of ozone are exacerbated under conditions of high aerosol concentration and elevated temperatures. Interestingly, drought conditions were found to partially mitigate the negative impact of ozone on productivity.

This study provides a systematic and actionable analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the effects of ozone pollution and its interactions with climate change and other environmental factors on crop productivity. The findings underscore the need for targeted agricultural measures and pollution control strategies, particularly in high-pollution regions and during critical growth stages. These results provide theoretical support for sustainable agricultural development and climate adaptation management. Furthermore, the study contributes valuable insights into the application of remote sensing technology for large-scale agricultural monitoring, thereby enhancing the management efficiency and adaptive capacity of agricultural ecosystems in response to environmental challenges.