- 1Risklayer GmbH, Karlsruhe, Germany (james@risklayer.com)
- 2Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Resources (ISER), University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- 3CEDIM (Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology) and IPF, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
- 4Independent Researcher, Adelaide, Australia
- 5Independent Researcher, Barquisimeto, Venezuela
- 6Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Institute for Environmental Studies, Water & Climate Risk, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- 7International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- 8Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
The tourism and travel industry is one of the key economic sectors across Europe, contributing ca.10% GDP yearly (with indirect and induced effects) equating to just under 2 trillion EUR. During COVID-19, the major negative effects on domestic and international tourism were a wake-up call to hotels, hospitality and the destinations to become more resilient to not only biological shocks but all manner of disasters in the wake of climate change and increasing climatic peril effects in many locations.
As part of the Hotel Resilient Initiative and in the MYRIAD-EU project, extensive analysis of the tourism sector has been undertaken for Europe in order to characterise the locations, values, and types of assets at risk for the tourism sector in spatial and temporal systems.
An analysis is made in this study for hotels and their destinations in Europe, to examine the sectoral risk to natural (geophysical, hydrological, and meteorological) and human-made perils in order to examine which locations are most at risk of financial direct damage now, and in 2050 for selected perils. Quantitative outputs are produced showing the most at risk locations in each country and across Europe.
In addition, where quantitative metrics could not be produced with great certainty, a tool has been produced giving a multi-risk vulnerability index in order to view and adjust the importance of different tourism indicators such as domestic and international expenditure, employment, tourism stays, attractions at a NUTS-3 EU level. The evaluation of the disaster types affecting it allows for a semi-quantitative view of the impacting factors on the locations, giving additional insights into the effects for the tourism industry.
It is found that hydro-meteorological perils have an increasing influence throughout Eastern Europe with the effects of climate change with yearly damages often exceeding 1 bn EUR. Geophysical perils such as earthquakes cause major singular shocks to locations, often taking years for the tourism industry to recover, especially across the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. Drought, heat and water stress however is starting to cause major issues to the industry as seen in Spain last year.
The loss outputs from this study will support further development of the Hotel and Destination Resilient Scorecards being produced in various locations across Europe.
How to cite: Daniell, J., Schaefer, A., Brand, J., Daniell, J., Maier, A., Khazai, B., Girard, T., Romero, R., Claassen, J., Strelkovskii, N., Blanz, B., Ascherl, J., Mardell, C., and Michalke, S.: A Europe-wide Tourism Destination Socioeconomic Risk Model for Natural and Human-made Perils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14214, 2025.
