Forecasting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) in the North-East Atlantic

Deep-sea habitat-forming species face increasing threats from human activities, particularly destructive fishing practices and the effects of anthropogenic climate change. These species are now classified as Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs), due to their slow growth rates and limited capacity for recovery after disturbance. VMEs are vital indicators of deep-sea biodiversity, and they often correlate with the presence of commercially important fish and other marine species.

Given the logistical challenges of deep-sea mapping, habitat suitability modelling (HSM) can offer critical insights into VMEs’ distributions. This research employs HSM to estimate the current distributions of a number of VMEs in the North-East Atlantic using an ensemble of three methodologies: Maximum Entropy (Maxent), Generalised Additive Models (GAM), and Random Forest. In addition to modelling current distributions, projections under future climate conditions were produced for a range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, incorporating six IPCC climate projections over 10 decades using high-resolution environmental data. These analyses will help assess climate velocities and identify climate refugia for VMEs under a wide range of potential future conditions. The findings will also inform decision-making by highlighting priority areas for biodiversity conservation, supporting the designation of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and wider North-East Atlantic.