Pollinator peaking earlier than flowering is more detrimental to plant fecundity

Climate change has caused asynchronous phenological shifts between most plants and their pollinators, resulting in an earlier or later appearance of peak flowering relative to peak pollinator abundance. The fitness impact of these two mismatch patterns may not be simply equivalent, but the information has so far been limited. To explore how differently plant fitness responds to the distinct mismatch patterns, we conducted a seed-setting comparative study at the individual level in an alpine grassland community in the Qilian Mountains of China. By monitoring flowering abundance and insect visits, we measured the phenological matching relationship between plants and their key pollinators, and evaluated the impact of mismatches on plant productivity. We found that the pattern of “pollinator peaks earlier” accounted for a relatively high proportion in the natural community, with a significantly stronger fitness impact on plants than that of the “flower peaks earlier” pattern. The asymmetry in the fitness impacts between phenological mismatch patterns is related to the length of flowering period. Specially, the shorter the flowering duration, the greater the difference in influence between the two patterns. Our results suggest that plants with shorter flowering periods may be confronted with more severe pollination limitations if climate warming cause insects to forage further ahead. Therefore, the asymmetric effects of phenological mismatch patterns should be considered in phenological models to improve the predictive performance of plant responses to climate change.