EGU25-14356, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14356
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Forecasting Time-Intensity profiles of Solar Energetic Particles using the Solar Wind with Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model
Lulu Zhao1, Tamas Gombosi, and the CLEAR Team*
Lulu Zhao and Tamas Gombosi and the CLEAR Team
  • 1University of Michigan, CLaSP, Ann Arbor, United States of America (zhlulu@umich.edu)
  • *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract

At the CLEAR space weather center of excellence, we are building a comprehensive prediction framework for solar energetic particles (SEP) events by integrating physics-based simulations, machine learning techniques, and empirical methods. A cornerstone of this framework is the Solar Wind with Field Line and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model, a physics-based approach designed to predict the properties of SEP events, with a focus on the time-intensity profiles across energies ranging from 1 MeV to several hundred MeV, as well as the corresponding time-evolving energy spectra.

The SOFIE model incorporates all major factors influencing the generation and propagation of SEPs. These include: 4π maps of photospheric magnetic fields, corona (1 − 20Rs), inner and middle heliosphere (0.1 AU to Jupiter’s orbit) plasma environment, magnetic connectivity with respect to the solar source, CME initiation, SEP seed population, shock acceleration mechanisms, and energetic particle transport processes.

The background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and heliosphere is modeled by the Alfven Wave Solar-atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM(-R)) driven by the magnetic field measurement of the Sun’s photosphere. The model's background solar wind solution is continuously updated using near-real-time, hourly GONG magnetograms. In the background solar wind, the CMEs are launched employing the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL), by inserting a flux rope estimated from the free magnetic energy in the active region. The acceleration and transport processes are then modeled self-consistently by the multiple magnetic field line tracker (M-FLAMPA). In this work, we present the prototype of the SOFIE model, showcasing its capability to predict the time-intensity profiles and time-evolving energy spectra of SEP events, demonstrated through simulations of historical SEP events.

CLEAR Team:

Igor Sokolov, C. Nick Arge, Yang Chen, Kathryn Whitman, Ward B. Manchester, Weihao Liu, Alexander Shane, Timothy Keebler, Xianyu Liu, Gergely Koban, Nikolett Biro, Bart van der Holst, C. M. S. Cohen, Alessandro Bruno, Ian Richardson, David Lario, Yuri Omelchenko, Meng Jin, Nishtha Sachdeva, Zhenguang Huang, Arik Posner, Hazel M. Bain, Leila Mays, Joe Giacalone, KD Leka

How to cite: Zhao, L. and Gombosi, T. and the CLEAR Team: Forecasting Time-Intensity profiles of Solar Energetic Particles using the Solar Wind with Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14356, 2025.