Revisiting Wickman (1966): Forecasting eruption onset and periods of activity at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

Delgado Granados et al. (1988) forecasted the initiation of an eruption at Popocatépetl volcano of any kind in 1997 with a 97% confidence and with a recurrence of eruptions every ~70 years. For this, they used the methods developed by Wickman (1966a-e) and Thorlaksson (1967) using the repose period concept. The current eruption at the volcano was initiated in 1994, three years in advance to the forecasted year. In this work we used the same expressions to calculate a new forecast using the same data. Interestingly, the forecast at 95% confidence indicates 1994 as the initiation of the next eruption after the end of the last eruptive period (1927) with a recurrence time of ~67 years. Further, we made the calculation adding more dates found in the recorded history of the volcano. We obtained a forecast of the initiation of the next eruption, after 1927, in the year 1994 at 95% confidence and a recurrence period of ~67 years. Using the same tools, but now for the duration of the activity intervals, we obtained a period of activity duration at ~43 years. Using this timing, the current eruption could be ending in 2037 at 95% probability.

 

REFERENCES

 

Delgado Granados H., Carrasco Núñez G., Urrutia Fucugauchi J., Casanova Becerra J.M., 1988, Analysis of the Eruptive Records of the Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico, Kagoshima International Conference on Volcanoes, Proceedings Volume 1988, pp. 510-513.

Thorlaksson J.E.,1967, A probability model of volcanoes and the probability of eruptions of Hekla and Hekla and Katla, Bull. Vol., 31, 97-106.

Wickman F.E., 1966, Repose period patterns of volcanoes. I. Volcanic eruptions regarded as random phenomena. Ark. Mineral. Geol., 4, 7, pp. 291-301.

Wickman, F.E., 1966, Repose period patterns of volcanoes. IV. Volcanic eruptions regarded as random phenomena. Ark. Mineral. Geol., 4, 10, pp. 337-350.