Agent-Based Modeling for Palabuhan Ratu and Jayanti Villages in Response to a South Java Megathrust Earthquake-Tsunami (M9.1): An Integrated Model of Tsunami Hazard and Human Response

The villages of Palabuhan Ratu and Jayanti are identified as areas with a high tsunami hazard level due to their proximity to the South Java megathrust zone, which is estimated to have the potential to generate an earthquake of up to M9.1. Furthermore, their location within Palabuhan Ratu Bay could amplify tsunami wave heights, exacerbating the potential impact. Palabuhan Ratu is a densely populated area renowned for its beaches. Jayanti hosts critical infrastructure, including the Palabuhan Ratu Steam Power Plant, which significantly contributes to the electricity supply for Java and Bali. These factors collectively increase the vulnerability of these villages to tsunami-related risks. In this study, we present an evacuation model that combines simulation with tsunami scenarios, as well as causality and evacuation estimations. We used COMCOT to model tsunami propagation, run-up, and inundation, and TUNAMI-EVAC1 for agent based modeling to simulate community behavior during tsunami evacuations. The tsunami and agent based modeling results indicate a flow depth of up to 31 meters with an arrival time of 21 minutes, and a fatality impact of 39% of the total population of both villages if the community understands the location of evacuation sites, rising significantly to 57% if they do not know