Impact of climatic variability on vegetable price in China during colder months

Vegetables are full of nutrients that are difficult to obtain from meat or grains, such as vitamins, minerals, and dietary fiber, but they are vulnerable to abiotic stress, making it difficult to obtain consistent yields. Climate extreme events have caused a decline in vegetable production, often leading to elevated vegetable prices. Here, we investigate how climatic factors influence vegetable price changes in China, focusing on colder months when extreme weather impacts are more pronounced. We found three major patterns in vegetable consumer price index (VCPI) data, including data from 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2023. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode shows that vegetable prices in all provinces vary together, and this is linked with temperature variations in China. The second EOF mode has a north-south dipole spatial pattern, and it is linked to low-temperature events in southern China, which are closely linked to Arctic warming during colder months and central Pacific La Niña occurrences, especially in December. In addition to temperature, precipitation also affects vegetable prices, with cold rain and snow contributing to VCPI increases resulting from the third EOF mode. Also, the third mode, showing an east-west dipole pattern, is associated with eastern Pacific El Niño occurrences during January and February. Major VCPI patterns and relevant climate factors will facilitate the prediction of vegetable prices on a seasonal time scale and can be used as scientific evidence to prepare for a surge in vegetable prices by combining with seasonal climate forecasts. As China accounts for half of the world’s vegetable production and fluctuations in its vegetable prices can profoundly affect global food security, our findings would be useful to support stable vegetable production, ensure food security, and minimize economic losses globally.