Advancing ProFSea: a spatially-resolved sea-level change emulator for long-term impacts

Sea-level rise simulation has previously been limited to Earth system models and global emulators - restricting spatially-resolved sea-level projections to those based on ageing emissions pathways with inflexible and expensive frameworks for updating projections using the latest scenarios. The ProFSea (Projecting Future Sea-level) tool improved on AR5 methods for fast regional sea-level prediction, but was limited to RCP scenarios and a 21st century timescale. We use the FaIR simple climate model to generate an ensemble of global surface temperatures from a range of policy-relevant scenarios, and drive a global sea-level rise simulator. The global projections are then localised using spatial patterns (derived from model estimates and observational evidence) related to key sea-level change drivers. Uncertainty is quantified and propagated throughout the modelling chain. We present the evaluation of this enhanced version of the ProFSea sea-level projections tool, and demonstrate its utility as a policy tool for predicting local sea-level change risk through the 21st century, out to 2300.