Spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in Europe

Extreme precipitation events are critical phenomena that pose significant risks to societies. Understanding their spatial patterns and drivers is vital for both scientific and practical purposes, such as risk management strategies. This study investigates the spatial correlation of extreme precipitation events across Europe, their modulation by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the detection of potential changes over recent years. Additionally, it evaluates whether these patterns and trends are accurately replicated by tools commonly employed in the insurance industry.

Correlations between extreme precipitation events across European regions are investigated. In addition, the NAO, which is a dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is widely considered to be a significant modulator of these spatial patterns. Positive phases of the NAO are associated with intensified extreme precipitation in northern and western Europe, while negative phases shift these patterns towards southern Europe. By coupling precipitation data with NAO indices, we demonstrate how changes in NAO phases alter the spatial coherence and intensity of extreme events. Furthermore, a critical aspect of this study is comparing these patterns and trends with the tools and methods used in the insurance industry.

This study contributes to a better understanding of extreme precipitation dynamics in Europe, offering insights for practical applications in risk management. By highlighting gaps in current approaches, it underscores the need for integrating advanced climate diagnostics into risk assessment frameworks.