Assessing the Impact of Long-Term Wind Speed Changes on Crop Yields in China

Wind plays a crucial role in the growth of plants. Recent decades have witnessed a global phenomenon of wind stilling and reversal; however, the implications of these long-term wind changes on crop yields have been insufficiently explored. In this study, we evaluated wind's impact on rice, wheat, maize, and soybean yields in China from 1980 to 2017. Utilizing statistical models across various agro-climatic zones and spatial scales, our findings consistently indicate that crop yields increase with a reduction in growing-season wind speed, even after controlling for temperature and precipitation variables. Over three decades of wind stilling, a total production gain of 212 million tons was realized, effectively compensating for the production losses attributed to rising temperatures. Nevertheless, as the trend of wind has reversed and wind speeds have returned to levels observed in the 1990s, the production gains attributable to wind effects have diminished from 109% to 76% relative to the losses incurred from warming. Additionally, we observed an increase in the annual fluctuations of both wind speed and temperature, which has introduced further instability to crop yields. Consequently, wind-related climatic changes may pose an unrecognized threat to food security, warranting further investigation into their underlying mechanisms and broader implications.