Heat Wave Assessment in Iran's Vulnerable Locations Incorporating Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change and heat waves are among the most pressing challenges impacting water resources and intensifying wildfire occurrences worldwide. Understanding and predicting these extreme temperature events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. To address this need, we conducted a comprehensive study focusing on heatwave prediction across Iran. This project utilized a novel approach, combining global climate change models with advanced statistical techniques such as copula functions [1]. This methodology enabled the detailed examination and correlation of three critical heatwave parameters: intensity, duration, and frequency. By establishing these interrelationships, the study provided a robust framework for predicting future heatwave characteristics [2].

The projections from our study reveal alarming trends for the future. Under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), including SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 [3], the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves are expected to increase significantly by the year 2100. Specifically, the SSP8.5 scenario, which assumes high greenhouse gas emissions and limited mitigation, predicts the most dramatic escalation in these parameters. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptive planning to safeguard public health, ensure the functionality of essential services, and minimize economic and environmental damage.

The integration of global climate models with copula-based statistical analyses proved to be a powerful tool in capturing the complex dynamics of heatwaves. This approach not only enhanced the accuracy of predictions but also provided valuable insights into the probabilistic behaviour of heatwave events under changing climatic conditions. By leveraging these insights, policymakers and planners can make informed decisions to mitigate risks and enhance resilience against future climate extremes.

Given the accelerating pace of global climate change, the implications of this research extend beyond Iran, offering a framework that can be adapted and applied to other regions facing similar challenges. Proactive measures, informed by predictive models such as ours, are essential to address the multifaceted impacts of heatwaves, from public health crises to disruptions in water and energy systems [4]. This study highlights the critical importance of integrating climate science with policy and infrastructure planning to build a sustainable and resilient future.

References

1        Chen, L., Guo, S., Chen, L., and Guo, S.: ‘Copula Theory’, Copulas and its application in Hydrology and Water Resources, 2019, pp. 13-38

2        Mazdiyasni, O., Sadegh, M., Chiang, F., and AghaKouchak, A.: ‘Heat wave intensity duration frequency curve: A multivariate approach for hazard and attribution analysis’, Scientific reports, 2019, 9, (1), pp. 14117

3        Usta, D.F.B., Teymouri, M., and Chatterjee, U.: ‘Assessment of temperature changes over Iran during the twenty-first century using CMIP6 models under SSP1-26, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios’, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2022, 15, (5), pp. 416

4        Marx, W., Haunschild, R., and Bornmann, L.: ‘Heat waves: a hot topic in climate change research’, Theoretical and applied climatology, 2021, 146, (1), pp. 781-800