The Potential of Agricultural Production in China and Relationship with the Spatiotemporal Changes in Grain Production and Population

The Agricultural Production Potential in China and the basic geographical endowment patterns revealed by geographical boundaries such as the Hu Huanyong Line (Population boundary line in China), the Great Wall（Boundary line of agricultural and pastoral areas in China), and the Qinling-Huaihe line（North-South boundary line in China, and their relationship with food production and population distribution are worthy of exploration. Research findings indicate that there is a significant geographical differentiation in the agricultural production potential of China, with a general trend of higher potential in the southeast and lower potential in the northwest. The Heihe-Tengchong Line and Qinling-Huaihe Line serve as a dividing line for agricultural production potential in China, with a decreasing trend on the eastern side and a significant increasing trend on the western side. Specifically, the eastern region is characterized by "warming and drying" conditions, whereas the western region is marked by "warming and wetting," resulting in distinct differences in agricultural productivity between the two regions. from 1960s to 2010s, the proportion of total grain output, cultivated land area, and grain yield per hectare in the western region of the Hu Huanyong Line exhibited a significant upward trend nationwide. Simultaneously, the share of the total population in the eastern region decreased year by year, with rural population experiencing a rise followed by a decline. In contrast, the proportion of the population, particularly the rural population, in the western region steadily increased. These regional differences can be attributed to the combined effects of climate change, agricultural production potential. This study systematically analyzes the changes in agricultural production potential in eastern and western China and their relationship with grain output and population dynamics. It provides new insights into understanding regional agricultural development disparities and offers theoretical guidance for future agricultural policies and coordinated regional development.