A distributed rainfall-runoff model to explore the connection between floods and climate extremes in the European Alps

Given the current warming trend of our climate system, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are expected to have a significant impact on flood dynamics. The Clim2FlEx project aims in this evolving context to assess how floods of different natures are linked to climate extremes under potential future climate scenarios.

This work focuses on the European Alps, an optimal natural laboratory for this topic due to the complex hydro-meteorological processes occurring in the region and its unique position at the intersection of the Mediterranean and continental Europe.

The methodology uses an innovative and integrated version of the TUWmodel, combined with a machine-learning-based regionalization approach, HydroPASS. Once the regional model is validated, it will enable hydrological runoff predictions for both current and future scenarios across the Greater Alpine Region. Based on these simulations, we aim to identify flood events in time and space, linking them to climate extreme indices and, ultimately, to the large-scale climatic phenomena driving their dynamics.

At the EGU, we will present the results obtained regarding the performance of the regional model, along with the steps taken, and those planned, for developing the spatio-temporal event detection strategies.