Leveraging Geospatial Techniques to Appraise the Potential Implications on Vulnerable GLOF Sites in High Mountain Asia: A Case Study of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Northern Pakistan

The ongoing deglaciation driven by global warming and climate change has led to the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events including heatwave, cold wave, flash floods, cloud burst, GLOFs, etc. This resulted in the formation and expansion of numerous glacial lakes, particularly in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Many of these lakes are at high risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which can release millions of cubic meters of water and debris, causing extensive damage to lives, property, infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods in remote and economically vulnerable downstream communities in Pakistan. This study focuses on Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) in Northern Pakistan to assess GLOF risk using multi-source data. Several vulnerable sites from the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s GLOF inventory were analyzed, seven of which are highly susceptible to GLOFs. A spatio-temporal analysis of these sites considered critical factors such as lake area and volume changes, elevation, slope, aspect, temperature and precipitation patterns, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, glacier and snow cover loss, proximity to fault lines, and impact zones through geospatial techniques, GIS analysis and cloud computing Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Results indicate a significant decline in snow and glacier cover, coupled with an increase in land surface temperatures (LST), contributing to accelerated melting and heightened GLOF and flash flood occurrences. The study also estimates potential impacts on population, infrastructure, schools, forests, agriculture, and water quality in the Neelum Valley of AJK. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and disaster management authorities to devise targeted and effective risk mitigation strategies.