Modelling the impact of mining activities on the dynamics and evolution of a Kyrgyz glacier

Glaciers worldwide are retreating due to climate change driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but local human activities also impact glacier dynamics. This study models the effects of gold mining on Davydov glacier in the Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, from the Little Ice Age through 2100 using a 3D thermodynamic ice flow model. Historical evolution is constrained using satellite observations, while ice excavation from mining is simulated by removing ice within predefined masks. Results show that mining over the past two decades shortened the glacier by ~2 km and reduced its volume by 160 million m³ compared to a climate-only scenario. Projections indicate that if mining ceases, the glacier could advance temporarily by ~100 m because the current ice-flux is at present larger than the surface mass balance. Maintaining its position would require annual removal of up to 650,000 m³ of ice. By 2060, natural retreat is expected to extend beyond the mining site, with no significant differences between mining and no-mining scenarios. By 2100, volume losses range from -40% to -99%, depending on the climate scenario. Under a hypothetical return to Little Ice Age conditions, the glacier could fully recover within 500 years, but mining-induced landscape changes would lead to larger glacier regrowth, with ice thickness reaching up to 600 m due to central pit filling. This study underscores the long-term impacts of local human activities and landscape modifications on glacier geometry and dynamics.