- 1GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Biogeochemistry, Kiel, Germany (ifrenger@geomar.de)
- 2Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
The ocean accumulates carbon and heat under anthropogenic CO2 emissions and global warming. In net-negative emissions scenarios, where more CO2 is extracted from the atmosphere than emitted, we expect global cooling. Little is known about how the ocean will release heat and carbon under such a scenario. Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity and show results of an idealized climate change scenario that, following global warming forced by an atmospheric CO2 increase of 1% per year and CO2 doubling at year 70, subsequently features decreasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of -0.1% per year, implying sustained net-negative emissions. After four hundred years of net-negative emissions and gradual global cooling, abrupt reemergence of heat from the ocean interior leads to a global mean surface temperature increase of several tenths of degrees that lasts for more than a century. The ocean heat "burp" originates in heat that has previously accumulated under global warming in the Southern Ocean at depths and emerges to the ocean surface via deep convection. Surprisingly, this heat burp is largely devoid of CO2. This is because changes in ocean circulation affect heat more than carbon, with an additional muting effect of CO2 loss due to particularities of sea water carbon chemistry. As the ocean heat loss causes a global mean surface temperature increase that is independent of atmospheric CO2 concentrations or emissions, it presents a mechanism that introduces a break down of the quasi-linear relationship of the TCRE.
How to cite: Frenger, I., Frey, S., Oschlies, A., Getzlaff, J., Martin, T., and Koeve, W.: Southern Ocean heat burp in a cooling world, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15339, 2025.