Understanding GHG Emission Trends in Romania: Sectoral and Regional Perspectives

The influence of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change represents a critical global issue. This study investigates the dynamics of three key greenhouse gases-carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)-from 1990 to 2021 across Romania's development regions, including a focused analysis of emissions in the urban area of Bucharest and the surrounding Ilfov region. Data for the analysis were sourced from the EDGAR database (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), with emissions categorized by major activity sectors, including transport, waste management, biomass burning, manufacturing and construction, fossil fuel usage, and agricultural practices such as rice cultivation and livestock. This categorization allows for a comprehensive examination of sectoral contributions to overall GHG emissions.

To capture the evolution of GHG emissions, the study applies advanced statistical tools. Temporal variations in the GHG time series were analyzed using Change Point Analysis, identifying both major and minor change points, all statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. Monotonic annual trends in emissions were further assessed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test in combination with Sen’s method, providing a nuanced understanding of long-term emission patterns.

The findings reveal substantial regional disparities in CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions, with distinct periods of increase or reduction. These variations correlate with factors such as industrial development, shifts in agricultural practices, and the implementation of environmental regulations. By analyzing both national and regional trends, the study sheds light on the sectoral drivers of emissions and their long-term behavior.

This research enhances understanding of Romania's GHG emission trends over the past three decades, emphasizing the influence of regional variations and sectoral contributions to shaping the country's overall emissions profile.