Increasing impact of compound dry and hot events on maize yield in China

Drought episodes combined with hot events usually trigger dramatic impacts on ecosystems and agricultural production. However, most existing studies on climate stress focus primarily on individual events, leading to a neglect of compound information. Based on various combinations of climate conditions, we investigate the impact of 6 modes of events, namely, compound dry and cold events, compound wet and hot events, compound dry and hot events (CDHEs), compound wet and cold events, droughts, and hot events, on maize yield in China. Evidence from both country–level and province–level yield data indicates that CDHEs have emerged as a major threat to maize yield, with higher yield reduction than the other 5 modes of climate events. Negative maize yield anomalies caused by CDHEs have increased over the past decades, partly due to the rising frequency, spatial extent, and severity of compound events. Moreover, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has recently intensified yield losses associated with CDHEs. Findings from this investigation underscore the urgent need for adaptation strategies to prevent the occurrence of CDHEs, and to mitigate their impacts.