Hydrogeological Modeling of the Maspalomas Ravine Aquifer in Gran Canaria under Climate Change Scenarios

Groundwater is a critical resource in the Canary Islands, requiring a comprehensive understanding and effective management of these water resources. Hydrogeological modelling provides essential geoscientific insights for the identification, protection, and sustainable utilization of these resources. This is particularly crucial for volcanic islands like Gran Canaria, which possess unique geological formations and limited water resources. These models are instrumental in elucidating groundwater flow, recharge rates, and the overall water balance within the island's aquifers.

Climate change poses significant risks to volcanic islands, including altered precipitation patterns, increased evaporation rates, and sea-level rise, which can lead to saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. These changes can severely impact water supply, agriculture, and overall sustainability. The Maspalomas Lagoon, a critical ecological site, relies on the balance of freshwater inflows from the aquifer. Understanding how climate change scenarios affect the aquifer's recharge and flow is essential for preserving the lagoon's health and the ecosystem services it provides.

By incorporating climate projections from the CMCC-ESM2 model under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, we can assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Maspalomas Ravine aquifer. Integrating climate projections into hydrogeological models facilitates more informed planning and management of water resources. This approach provides a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, leading to more resilient water management practices and ensuring a sustainable water supply for future generations on volcanic islands like Gran Canaria. Additionally, this methodology will elucidate the real influence of the aquifer and the sea on the lagoon.