Evaluation on Future Potential Cropland Supply with Considering Agricultural Workforce Availability

Agriculture is one of the largest sectors in terms of human land and water use, occupying over 38% of the Earth’s ice-free land surface and 80% of the global human water footprint. In addition, various scenarios project a continuous expansion of agricultural land use at least until the 2050s, therefore emphasizing the growing importance of agriculture as a major channel of human influence on the Earth system. At the same time, urbanization and declining rural populations, accompanied by economic growth, suggest a potential decrease in the share of agricultural employment within the labor market. In this study, we introduce agricultural workforce availability, in addition to environmental suitability and policy, into the projection of future potential cropland supply and compare it with the projections of future cropland demand. A simple model framework was developed to project workforce-available cropland area, which includes the estimation of potential agricultural workforce and technological advancements. Under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, environmentally cultivable land is projected to remain underutilized due to limitations imposed by workforce availability, while under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, the global cultivation capability is expected to exceed environmentally cultivable land area by the 2080s. Under both scenarios, total potential cropland supply is projected to surpass the cropland demand globally. On the other hand, regional insufficiencies in the potential cropland supply are anticipated. For instance, under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, a group of high-latitude nations is expected to face a 10% shortfall in potential cropland supply by the 2050s, which is projected to decrease to 5% by the end of the 21^st century. Even under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario with the fast technological advancements, Brazil is expected to have 20% deficiency in potential cropland supply throughout the century. The results of this study suggest that there is room for improvement in the cultivable land area as input dataset for Earth system simulation models. Additionally, it highlights regions where technological investments are necessary to meet current projections of cropland demand.