Drought Risk Assessment in Crisis Context: A Collaborative Approach for Sudan.

We present the methodology for near real-time monitoring of emerging drought risk in Sudan, resulting in the release of a national drought risk bulletin every 10-days to inform local stakeholders, humanitarian organizations and policymakers. The bulletin stems from a collaboration between CIMA Research Foundation and Sudanese partners, within the framework of the APIS initiative - Early Warning and Civil Protection for Floods and Droughts in Sudan - funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation. The bulletin is co-created by nine Sudanese institutions with diverse economic, social or scientific expertise under the coordination of the National Council of Civil Defence NCCD, national body in charge of disaster risk reduction operations. Sudan is particularly vulnerable to drought impacts due to its climate, demographic and economy. This vulnerability has been further intensified by the war that erupted in April 2023, creating one of the most severe humanitarian crises in recent history. In this context, this collaboration enhances local resiliency and disaster preparedness while maintaining and supporting local expertise and know-how in a period of crisis. 

For the publication of the bulletin, drought risk is evaluated separately for three possible impact categories: croplands, rangelands and population.  For each of these, a combination of datasets from publicly available sources and datasets provided by the local partners are used to estimate the hazard, exposure and vulnerability components of risk. For hazard estimation, the combined drought indicator (CDI) is used for hazard to crops and pastures, whereas a 12-month standardised precipitation index (SPI12) is used as a proxy for water availability for the population.  

Regarding exposure and vulnerability, a collaborative approach was followed. Several relevant datasets were gathered and discussed with the representatives of the institutions participating in the creation of the bulletin to assess their correctness, validity and relevance. The selected datasets were weighted by the participants based on their expertise to collaboratively estimate the most suitable exposure and vulnerability layers for each of the three impact categories. Finally, a dynamic component was added to these layers considering global phenology data (for croplands and rangelands) as well as the implementation of an innovative approach to capture changes in population vulnerability during the dry season taking into consideration water availability and losses over time. 

The bulletin has been operational since November 2024 and all the data and results are available to all stakeholders through a tailored access to the online platform myDEWETRA.World.