- 1Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Spain.
- 2Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Av. de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander, España.
- 3Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Unidad Asociada al CSIC, Santander, España.
Compound extreme events are characterized by the combination of two or more events (not necessarily extreme) that can increase their respective individual impact. These phenomena can be of temporal nature (events that occur at the same time or in close succession), spatial nature (what happens in a place affects another) and/or multivariable nature (combination of several variables). This work focuses on the analysis of hot-dry compound extreme events —characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of high daily maximum temperature and low precipitation— and assesses their frequency, duration and severity.
For this purpose, both observational data (for a recent historical period) and climate model simulations provided by the CORDEX initiative, which gathers international efforts devoted to regional climate modeling, are considered. In particular, we use the CORDEX-CORE (CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations) ensemble, which comprises two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two distinct emission scenarios, covering most continental CORDEX domains at 0.22º spatial resolution (approx. 25km). Systematic biases, typically present in these simulations, have been alleviated with the application of bias adjustment, using a semi-parametric, trend-preserving, quantile mapping method (ISIMIP).
Our overall results show that hot-dry compound extreme events are enhanced over the next decades, with a general but region-dependent increase in frequency, duration and severity for different levels of global warming (+1.5, +2, +3 and +4 ºC, with respect to pre-industrial conditions), which can have important impacts across various sectors such as health, economy, tourism and agriculture, among others.
This work is part of Project COMPOUND (TED2021-131334A-I00) funded by MCIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR. A. C. and R. M. acknowledge support from PID2023-149997OA-I00 funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF/EU.
Keywords: compound events, regional climate models, climate change, extreme climate.
How to cite: Fuente-Gonzalez, M., Manzanas, R., Diez-Sierra, J., Chantreux, A., and Casanueva, A.: Evaluation and projection of hot-dry compound extreme events in a warmer climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16140, 2025.
