Assessing the Effects of Extreme Heat on Health, Agriculture, and Ecosystemsin Morocco under different levels of climate warming

In recent decades, ecosystems have faced extreme climatic events, such as high temperatures, which have significantly impacted human health, wildfires, and agricultural losses. These heat extremes are expected to continue increasing in frequency and intensity, necessitating a deeper understanding and close monitoring of these events.

The primary objective of this study is to quantify and compare the sectoral impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on human health, agriculture, and wildfire risks using high-resolution climate simulations. Health impacts were assessed using the Health Heat Index (HHI), while wildfire risk was analyzed using the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), which evaluates the duration and frequency of fire seasons in terrestrial ecosystems. Agricultural impacts were quantified by estimating crop heat stress during thermal-sensitive periods, calculating anthesis heat stress (AHS), and normalizing production damage indices.

These analysis reveals a significant increase in areas exposed to critical levels of heat stress, affecting human health, ecosystems, and food security. Our results show a significant rise in risks measured by the HHI And the analysis of the FFDI reveals also an extension in the duration and frequency of fire-prone seasons. In agriculture, the assessment of heat stress during sensitive periods, particularly through the Anthesis Heat Stress Index (AHS), highlights worsening production losses.

These findings highlight the urgency of adopting ambitious mitigation strategies to minimize risks to vulnerable populations and preserve ecosystems and food security.