Modelling land-use dynamics for net-zero emissions: a framework for informed decision-making in India

Land is not considered in its entirety in mitigation modelling, especially for India. Even when reported as an output, competing land demands from renewable energy (RE), urbanisation, agriculture, and forestry and the resultant trade-offs are not adequately captured in existing models. In this study, we augmented the Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI) model to determine the feasibility of a net-zero transition from a land availability perspective. SAFARI is a system dynamics simulation model that captures the dynamic interactions among various land types and therefore their competition. Using SAFARI, we developed illustrative net-zero scenarios for India to understand the land implications of the transition. We find that while India might have just enough land at a national aggregate level to support the transition to net-zero emissions, local constraints and land conflicts owing to acquisition challenges are more likely to occur in a high electrification scenario where there is increased focus on RE. Alternatively, a scenario with a focus on use of alternative fuels, nuclear power, behavioural changes, and efficiency improvements in addition to electrification and RE, would be more inclusive and optimal for a country like India.