Climate-related rural-to-urban migration: Empirical evidence on the economic drivers in low-and middle-income countries

Climate has been shown to influence migration, yet the mechanisms through which climate events lead to migration as well as the heterogeneous effects on different population groups remain poorly understood. This study addresses these gaps by exploring two key questions: (i) Who are the rural climate migrants in low- and middle-income countries? and (ii) Why do they migrate?. We examine changes in consumption levels and inequalities as potential mechanisms linking climate events to migration, employing the Roy-Borjas model to explain the self-selection of climate migrants based on skills and wealth. Using ERA5 weather data combined with 45,000 household observations from South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi, and China over two to four years, our fixed-effects models reveal that rising temperatures and declining precipitation drive rural-to-urban migration by reducing rural consumption and increasing consumption inequality. Our findings indicate that less educated individuals from middle-income households are more likely to migrate in response to climate events. These results underscore the heterogeneous effects of climate change on different population groups and highlight the need to (i) better understand the impacts of climate migration on affected households and (ii) develop targeted support for vulnerable populations who may become trapped by liquidity constraints.