Land Structure Change and Ecological Effects Under Future Development Scenarios in Tarim River Basin, Central Asia

Land is important in the productive life of human societies, as the ecological environment has been shown to be closely related to societal advancement. Currently, the dynamics of land use and cover change (LUCC) have emerged as a focal point in global change studies, playing a key role in urbanization development, regional climate, agricultural production, and ecological sustainability. Driven by the global context of increasing population, the human-land conflict is deepening issues around resource utilization and environmental problems. Soil and water matching in a land basin is important for securing land demand, alleviating human-land conflicts, and promoting sustainable development in the region. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is the largest inland river basin in China and primarily sustains an agricultural economy centered around oases. 

Over the past half-century, global warming and carbon emissions have become a serious threat to the sustainable development of society. It is therefore critically important to find viable solutions to the structural layout of land use that will promote current and future ecological security in the southern Xinjiang region. The aim in conducting the present study is to explore options for safeguarding the demand for land in the TRB and to promote the synergistic development of regional socio-economic and ecological environments. Using remote sensing data, the study will employ the PLUS model to simulate the evolution of spatial and temporal land-use patterns in the basin under different future scenarios while also considering the ecological value of land-use types. The connection between land development and the ecological environment is examined through the lens of relative ecological value and ecological impact. This study provides a strong scientific foundation for future land management and ecological sustainable development in the TRB.