An integrated Geostatistical and Numerical Modelling framework for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Wave Energy Fields in the Aegean Sea

Accurate spatiotemporal prediction of wave energy fields is critical for harnessing marine renewable energy, particularly in dynamic and complex regions like the Aegean Sea. The current work focuses on the spatiotemporal wave data analysis combining numerical wave modelling and geostatistical methods, for estimating the Wave Energy Potential for the Aegean Sea, an area with unsustainable energy production. The ERA5 produced by ECMWF reanalysis dataset which combines a weather model with observational data from satellites and ground sensors, is used to force NOAA/NCEP’s WAVEWATCH III numerical model to obtain the significant wave height and mean wave period for the area of interest over a fine grid of 3 x 3 km resolution. Geostatistical modelling, by means of co-kriging employing the recently established non-differentiable Spartan semivariogram and leveraging auxiliary variables such as wind data, is employed to estimate significant wave height variability and wave energy potential at finer coastal scales. Results of the geostatistical analysis are cross-validated with existing observations as well as with the results obtained from the computational methods. Spatiotemporal geostatistical or other stochastic spatiotemporal approaches have not been used with marine data and detailed studies of temporal, seasonal and spatial distribution analysis of significant wave height and wave energy potential is being carried out for the first time using these methods for the Aegean Sea. Updated spatial maps of the significant wave height and period and of the wave energy potential distribution for long-term seasonal changes are provided, based on results spanning a 20-year period, that reaches up to current years. The proposed integrated framework is relocatable to other areas of the Mediterranean Sea and provides insight into the application of the less computationally intensive geostatistical modelling in marine wave data.