- 1University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of hydroscience and engineering, Zagreb, Croatia (kristina.potocki@grad.unizg.hr)
- 2University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of hydroscience and engineering, Zagreb, Croatia (damir.bekic@grad.unizg.hr)
- 3University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Slovenia (nejc.bezak@fgg.uni-lj.si)
- 4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany (conradt@pik-potsdam.de)
- 5University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing (damir.pintar@fer.hr)
- 6University of Zagreb, Faculty of Geotechnical Engineering (msrajbek@gfv.hr)
- 7University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of hydroscience and engineering, Zagreb, Croatia (martina.lacko@grad.unizg.hr)
One of the major challenges in hydrological research for estimating design flood events is accounting for the influence of climate change. These changes are reflected in increasingly frequent and intense fluctuations in river water regimes and sediment transport, indirectly affecting riverbed erosion processes. Therefore, assessing the long-term impacts on the lifespan of hydraulic structures (e.g., bridges) is crucial, requiring a comprehensive analysis of the interrelationship between climate change indicators, flood wave characteristics (including peak flow and hydrograph shape), and local riverbed erosion.
The SERIOUS project (Synthetic dEsign hydrographs undeR current and future clImate for local bridge scOUr aSsessment) aims to methodologically link synthetic design hydrographs (SDH) derived from statistical bivariate analysis under current and projected future climate conditions in the continental parts of the Danube River basin to the assessment of climate change impacts on bridge scour at selected pilot sites. The project objectives are to: (1) establish a methodological framework for determining control SDH based on literature reviews and available data in selected pilot areas; (2) apply and improve supervised and/or unsupervised machine learning algorithms to categorize different SDH types based on their shapes and/or topologies; (3) calibrate a regional hydrological model to evaluate climate change projections using historical discharge and water level data from the selected pilot areas; (4) investigate changes in SDH under climate change projections; and (5) develop a methodological framework for evaluating climate change impacts on bridge scour depth. These objectives are supported by the IAHS "Helping Decade" initiative (Working Group 11.1). The proposed project is expected to improve methodologies for determining SDH, serving as critical inputs for designing various engineering structures.
Acknowledgment:
This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project SERIOUS (IP-2024-05-1497) and the “Young Researchers’ Career Development Project – Training New Doctoral Students” (DOK-2020-01-5354).
How to cite: Potočki, K., Bekić, D., Bezak, N., Conradt, T., Pintar, D., Šrajbek, M., and Lacko, M.: Synthetic Design Hydrographs Under Current and Future Climate for Local Bridge Scour Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16468, 2025.
