Contemporary Megadrought on Easter Island (Rapa Nui) since 2010

Since 2010 Easter Island (Rapa Nui) has experienced an exceptional decadal-scale megadrought. Observations show a significant and unusual decrease in precipitation on Rapa Nui: every year from 2010-2023 has had lower precipitation than the average from 1979-2009, resulting in an average precipitation that is 67% of normal. This reduction in precipitation coincides with decadal-scale climate shifts: an intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone and its shift closer to the island along with a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Each of these phenomena are trending near or beyond their most extreme values since 1979 and each of them are directly linked to reduced precipitation on Rapa Nui. These trends are shown to continue into mid-century under an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We therefore argue that the current megadrought is best explained by anthropogenic climate change and that Rapa Nui may be entering a fundamentally drier climate state.